Poll shows Texas Senate race a toss-up as Cornyn and Paxton vie for GOP nod

As early voting begins, Congressional candidates are crisscrossing Texas to make their final pitch.

DALLAS — A new poll shows the U.S. Senate race is a toss-up regardless of which Republican candidate is victorious in a contentious runoff election on May 26

Early voting began Monday in the contest between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton to determine who will face Democratic challenger State Rep. James Talarico.

“I’ve accomplished more in any two-week period, John can pick it, than he’s accomplished in 42 years,” Paxton said of his opponent at a Monday Dallas campaign event.

“To me, a lot of it has to do with character and effectiveness and electability. And I don’t think the Attorney General gets that done,” Cornyn said in remarks at his own north Texas campaign event Sunday in Collin County.

Cornyn, first elected in 2002, is running for a fifth term in the U.S. Senate. He proudly tells voters at each campaign stop that he has voted with President Trump 99.3% of the time. Paxton says he was proud to share the stage with President Trump at the “stop the steal” rally on January 6, 2021. He also would go on to sue the Biden Administration a record 107 times, including on Biden’s last day in office.

“There’s not a single person who can argue that Ken Paxton doesn’t fight for us,” said State Rep. Katrina Pierson in her introduction of Paxton at his Dallas event.

State Rep. Jeff Leach, however, pulled no punches in his support of Sen. Cornyn.

“And his opponent has no business, no business whatsoever serving you and serving me and serving our state in the United States Senate,” Leach said of Paxton. The Cornyn campaign has targeted Paxton’s divorce, his legal troubles, and his 2023 impeachment trial. He was acquitted of all 16 articles of impeachment by the Texas Senate.

In a video texted to voters, former Texas Gov. Rick Perry endorsed Cornyn, citing the National Border Patrol Council’s endorsement of Cornyn as well.

A new survey by the Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center finds that either candidate is in a virtual dead heat against Democratic challenger James Talarico. In a survey of likely voters, both Cornyn and Paxton have lower favorability ratings than Talarico.  And in a hypothetical race against Talarico, Paxton is only 1% ahead, and Paxton is tied with Talarico at 45% each. The poll has a margin of error of +/-2.8%.

Each candidate has multiple campaign stops planned across Texas each day this week.

The other major north Texas runoff race is between incumbent Rep. Julie Johnson and Colin Allred for House of Representatives District 33. Neither candidate earned 50% of the vote in the March primary, although Allred finished nearly 11 points ahead of Johnson in the contest in the newly redrawn district. Johnson has called Allred ineffective during his three terms in Congress. 

“We have so much on the line in this election. I want to make sure we have a representative who will stand up to this President,” Allred said in a campaign stop at the Oak Lawn Library in Dallas.

The runoff election is May 26; here’s everything you need to know.

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