A new Texas Southern University survey suggests the Texas Senate race could be far closer than expected heading into November.
HOUSTON — A new Texas Southern University survey suggests the race for U.S. Senate in Texas could be far tighter than many voters may expect heading into the November election.
Early voting for the Texas primary runoff elections is already underway, and the latest numbers show several key races could be highly competitive.
According to the TSU survey, Democrat James Talarico currently holds the highest favorability rating among the three major Senate candidates who could appear on the November ballot. Talarico is viewed favorably by 46% of likely Texas voters and unfavorably by 35%.
The survey found incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn would narrowly lead Talarico in a hypothetical November matchup, with 45% of likely voters supporting Cornyn compared to 44% for Talarico. Another 8% said they remain undecided.
But the race appears even tighter if Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton becomes the Republican nominee. In that scenario, the survey found Paxton and Talarico tied at 45% each among likely voters.
“Under the second scenario, Paxton and Talarico are in a literal tie, each with a vote intention of 45%,” the report states.
The TSU Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center conducted the survey between April 22 and May 6, 2026, among likely Texas voters. Researchers said the survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.80 percentage points.
The survey also found Cornyn and Paxton both carry higher unfavorable ratings than favorable ones among likely voters. Cornyn is viewed favorably by 37% of voters and unfavorably by 49%, while Paxton is viewed favorably by 42% and unfavorably by 48%.
The findings come as Texans begin casting ballots in several major runoff races across the state, including the Republican U.S. Senate runoff between Cornyn and Paxton. Other races on the ballot include contests for Texas attorney general, Harris County judge and Congressional District 18.