DALLAS — At the top of the ticket, the runoff election in Texas catapulted Ken Paxton and retired John Cornyn, setting the stage for the U.S. Senate race in November against Democrat James Talarico.
In the end, the Paxton-Cornyn race was a blowout, with Paxton winning 64% – 36%, a nearly 400,000 vote difference.
Scott Braddock is editor of the Quorum Report, the state’s oldest political newsletter. He tells us he wasn’t surprised by the landslide victory because he’s been talking to Republican voters all over the state and an endorsement from President Donald Trump carries that kind of weight. The President endorsed Paxton one week before the election, and after early voting had already started.
“In so many conversations, Republican voters told me that they might have been planning to vote for one candidate, and then the President endorsed the other, and they switched their vote. They switched to the other person. No other endorsement could do that,” Braddock explained on Y’all-itics. “So, I do think that over the course of the last week or so, even after, what, 200,000 votes or so were banked in that election by the time Trump made the endorsement, after that, I guarantee you there were some people who were going to vote for Cornyn who switched their vote to Paxton.”
Braddock says the baggage Paxton brings to the race, from his impending divorce to his impeachment to criminal investigations, presents an opportunity for Democrat state Rep. James Talarico, who’s already seizing on it, calling Paxton “the most corrupt politician in America.” In fact, Talarico has already launched a five stop tour of Texas he’s calling “The People vs. Ken Paxton Tour.”
Braddock said, for the past three decades, the GOP machine in Texas has cemented Republican power to the point that the party has been able to build up structural advantages that gives them, in essence, a ten-point lead in a general election. But that’s now at risk, he says, in the U.S. Senate race.
“The common knowledge or wisdom among Republican operatives who are not affiliated with these campaigns right now is that Paxton’s candidacy cuts that ten point advantage into about a five point advantage for Republicans so that gives Talarico a boost,” Braddock said.
Paxton has denied wrongdoing and says the investigations are politically motivated. And he’s already attacking Talarico on culture war issues, calling his opponent the “most extreme radical the Democrats have ever nominated” during his victory speech following the runoff.
Another big question now is how Cornyn will spend his remaining months in the U.S. Senate. Will he continue to back President Trump’s agenda? Or will he join what is now being called the “YOLO” (“you only live once”) caucus, that includes a growing number of Republican Senators who’ve lost their primaries after Trump endorsed their opponent, and work against the President’s priorities.
“He’s got that mindset, a judicial temperament. I don’t imagine Cornyn throwing a lot of bombs at the President. I don’t think that’s going to happen. Not to say that he won’t because who can predict anything anymore. But that’s not my expectation. What I would expect is that he takes his role of Senator seriously and instead of throwing bombs, instead he just doesn’t vote for Trump’s stuff,” Braddock relayed.
The Jasons and Scott Braddock also discuss why Paxton is now the mainstream Republican in Texas, the emerging issue that state lawmakers will face when they gavel back into session in January, and the results from some other congressional races across Texas. Listen to the entire episode – or watch it – to learn more. Cheers!