It’s forecast to move across the Gulf toward the Texas and Louisiana coast by the end of this week.
HOUSTON — A weather disturbance in the north-eastern Gulf has a 10% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next seven days, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The system, currently positioned just offshore of the Florida Gulf coast consists of a trough of low pressure located on the southern end of a frontal boundary. Weather forecasters expect the disturbance to move in a west-southwestwardly direction into the north-central portion of the Gulf over the coming days, so we’ll have to watch it closely.
Environmental conditions appear only marginally favorable for slow development as it moves across the north central Gulf toward the Texas coast.
Wind shear cutting across the system from northeast to southwest, combined with its proximity to land will most likely lower the chance for development.
Computer modeling suggests that a weak, elongated area of low pressure could slowly form as the disturbance moves east to west across the northern Gulf.
The Hurricane Center emphasized that regardless of whether the disturbance develops into a named storm, heavy rainfall could affect portions of the northern Gulf coast through the weekend. The formation chance remains low at 10% over the next 48 hours and maintains the same 10% probability through the seven-day forecast period.
The weather outlook was issued at 7 p.m. on Tuesday, July 22, 2025, as part of the Hurricane Center’s routine monitoring of tropical weather patterns during the Atlantic hurricane season.
Residents along the northern Gulf coast should continue monitoring weather forecasts for potential heavy rainfall impacts, even without tropical development occurring.
Be prepared
So, what can you do now? Make sure you have a solid hurricane plan. Make sure you have your hurricane supplies, a full tank of gas, and some cash. Check your evacuation route if you live near the coast and monitor the weather multiple times a day. You can also download the KHOU 11 app to get push notifications on the system. KHOU 11 is also streaming live digital updates daily on KHOU 11+.
Interactive tropical tracking map