A Texas political expert says runoff election results may reveal major shifts inside both parties as November races begin taking shape.
HOUSTON — Texas voters may have sent a major message about the direction of both political parties during the state’s primary runoff elections, according to a political science expert who joined KHOU 11 on Wednesday morning to break down the results.
Mike Yawn, a political science professor at Sam Houston State University, said the biggest race of the night — Attorney General Ken Paxton’s Republican runoff win over longtime U.S. Sen. John Cornyn — highlighted the continued influence of former President Donald Trump inside the Texas GOP.
Paxton win signals direction of Texas GOP
Yawn said Paxton’s victory was widely expected after receiving Trump’s endorsement, though the size of the win stood out.
“So John Cornyn did not have a good showing, less than 40% for an incumbent senator who’s not involved in a scandal, and his opponent may be involved in a scandal,” Yawn said. “This was a very poor showing, and I think what this tells us is that it is the Republican Party is as a MAGA party now.”
Paxton will now face Democrat James Talarico in November.
Yawn said the race is already quickly shifting into general election mode.
“You already see between Talarico and Paxton, you already see the fists flying,” Yawn said. “And that’s probably going to get worse between now and November.”
Trump endorsement seen as major factor
Yawn said Trump’s endorsement appeared to accelerate Paxton’s momentum in the Republican primary.
“I think it is very clear after this election cycle from the outcomes in Indiana and other primaries that if you want to win a Republican primary, you have to be aligned with Donald Trump,” Yawn said.
Still, Yawn questioned how that support could affect the general election.
“Well, right now President Trump’s approval ratings are in the 30s, low 30s, maybe depending on the poll,” Yawn said. “That doesn’t usually augur well for the party.”
District 18 race seen as “passing of the torch”
Another major race in the Houston area was the Democratic runoff in Congressional District 18, where Christian Menefee defeated longtime Congressman Al Green following redistricting changes that placed both Democrats in the same district.
Yawn described the result as a generational shift.
“I think this is a passing of the torch,” Yawn said. “I think you have a younger person and a person who seemingly is more interested in actually passing legislation.”
He added that Menefee appears positioned well heading into November.
“I think he’s the odds-on favorite to carry that seat,” Yawn said.
Why low-turnout elections can still reshape politics
Despite relatively low turnout in the runoff elections, Yawn said the results could still have major long-term consequences.
“Well, it really was low, particularly on the Democratic side,” Yawn said.
Yawn said turnout appeared especially important in the Harris County judge race and suggested broader participation could have changed the outcome.
“You’re actually looking at only about a third of the people turned out yesterday that turned out two months ago,” Yawn said.
He added that lower participation often allows highly motivated voters to have a much larger influence on the outcome of elections.
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