As the $100 million slugfest between incumbent U.S. Sen. John Cornyn and his primary runoff opponent Ken Paxton comes to a close Tuesday, some observers predict the fight has done deep damage to an already divided Republican Party.
With President Donald Trump’s last-minute endorsement, Paxton goes into the runoff the favored candidate, never mind the litany of scandals — a near impeachment, a securities-fraud indictment and allegations of multiple affairs among them — that plagued his time as Texas attorney general.
Across the ring, Cornyn is backed by a bloated war chest and a Republican establishment that’s suddenly realizing the monster it spent a decade feeding — Trump — has developed a taste for senators. Despite blasting the airwaves with spots touting his fealty to the president, though, the incumbent can’t shake the MAGA crowd’s prognosis that he’s a Republican in name only, or RINO.
“In Spanish, they call it lucha de gigantes — a fight between two giants,” Daniel Garza, president of the LIBRE Institute, a conservative Texas-based group that’s stayed out of the primary, told Politico. “Post-runoff, you’re going to have to mend a lot of fences.”
Even though Paxton, a MAGA loyalist who’s run his office with an eye on stirring up culture-war shitstorms, has emerged as the embodiment of the 2024 GOP’s id, the prospect of his victory has national Republicans biting their nails to the quick, according to multiple news outlets.
For one, top Republican donors have already dumped millions into Cornyn’s campaign. He’s well liked among deep-pocketed party backers and has been in the Senate since 2002, making him a known quantity and well-respected as a power broker, insiders told Politico.
Beyond that, establishment party members worry the cyclone of scandals swirling around Paxton will give Texas Rep. James Talarico, the seat’s Democratic nominee, the upper hand in the general election. Adding to the stakes, if the well-funded Talarico pulls off a win, it will mark the first time a statewide office in Texas has gone blue since 1994.
“The vitriol is going to be real,” one Texas GOP state lawmaker and Cornyn backer told Politico on condition of anonymity. “[Trump] has destroyed that trust there. No matter what we do for you, you will still stab us in the back. That’s what he did to Cornyn.”
Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston, told NPR the dustup over the Paxton-Cornyn contest is emblematic of a far larger battle within the GOP.
“The Republican Party is pulling itself apart ideologically,” he said. “This has been a long time coming. The wings of the party have been battling each other for a long while.”
Tempers are running high because this midterm election is predicted to be a referendum on Trump’s second term. Due to the president’s deep unpopularity and Paxton’s checkered record, many in the party establishment are worried a Paxton win could hand Democrats a seat that otherwise would have been safe — and one that could change control of the whole Senate.
“This has been the most dramatic, most mud-soaked of the primaries we’ve seen in Texas in a very long time,” Rottinghaus told NPR. “And I think there’s good reason for that. This race will define the future of the Texas Republican Party.”
Sign Up for SA Current newsletters.
Follow us: Apple News | Google News | NewsBreak | Reddit | Instagram | Facebook | Twitter | Or sign up for our RSS Feed
Related Stories
Nearly 14 months and $135 million later, Texas’ blockbuster Republican Senate primary will finally be decided Tuesday.
Texas AG Ken Paxton’s office sent out nearly 300 press releases in the past year, and the overwhelming majority were negative in tone, even those lauding his office’s “major victories” in court.
The Federal Election Commission last month asked Paxton’s campaign to explain nearly $100,000 in donations that appeared to violate federal campaign law.