The University of Houston survey results were within the margin of error less than a month out from the May 26 election.
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Attorney General Ken Paxton leads Sen. John Cornyn by three percentage points in a new poll of Texas’ U.S. Senate Republican runoff, suggesting the May 26 contest will be narrowly decided absent a shakeup in the final weeks.
The statewide survey, conducted by the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs, found Paxton garnering 48% of the vote to Cornyn’s 45% among likely GOP runoff voters. Fielded from April 28 to Friday, the poll surveyed 1,200 voters and yielded a margin of error of +/-2.83 percentage points.
Since the March 3 primary, when Cornyn finished narrowly ahead of Paxton, virtually all polling of the overtime round has come from groups with partisan ties. Most have found either a close race or a single-digit Paxton lead, much in line with the Hobby School poll.
The two Republicans are locked in a runoff after neither secured a majority of the vote in March. Cornyn won 42% of the vote to Paxton’s 40.5%, with U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt, R-Houston, coming in third with 13.5%.
The UH poll found Hunt supporters breaking toward Paxton by a 19 percentage point margin, 54% to 35%.
Whether Hunt voters come back for the runoff — and whom they back if so — is an open question with the potential to swing the race. On the trail, Hunt was highly critical of the 74-year-old Cornyn, whom he criticized for both his age and role in crafting a bipartisan gun safety bill. Hunt sought to portray himself as a younger Paxton — without the ethical and legal baggage the attorney general has accumulated over his years in office. But since finishing third, Hunt has resisted overtures to endorse in the contest, saying he would follow President Donald Trump’s lead.
Trump has notably stayed out of the Senate contest despite pledging to weigh in, reportedly for Cornyn, the day after the primary.
In any case, the UH poll is the latest to find that Cornyn and Paxton each have a solid lock on their respective bases, with few voters changing their mind since March and all but a fraction of the electorate still on the fence. Paxton’s coalition from March is slightly more durable, the survey found: Of the likely runoff voters who pulled the lever for him in round one, 95% plan to back him again this month — compared to 91% who plan to stick with Cornyn.
But among the 7% of respondents who are still undecided in the contest — the majority of whom dislike both candidates — Cornyn is viewed favorably by nearly a quarter of that bloc, a bit ahead of the 19% who voiced a favorable view of Paxton.
That suggests that, after 2.14 million voters cast ballots in the March GOP contest, the runoff result will be shaped by which candidate turns out more of his existing base of supporters.
Cornyn is preferred by Republican voters with four-year college degrees, 52% to 42%. Paxton dominates with voters who lack a degree, 55% to 38%, and voters of color, among whom he leads by the same margin.
In addition, Paxton voters are more likely to report immigration and border security or election integrity as their top issue this cycle, while Cornyn voters are more concerned with inflation and the cost of living.
Two recent polls found state Rep. James Talarico, the Democratic nominee, leading both Cornyn and Paxton — a highly unusual poll result that has raised the stakes for the Republican runoff. In a November midterm that’s expected to be challenging for Republicans, the Cornyn camp has long argued the senior senator is best-positioned to win the general election. Cornyn has historically overperformed fellow Republicans over the course of his career, and he and his allies have argued that he can beat Talarico without the financial help of Republican groups in Washington while raising the floor for down-ballot candidates, especially for the U.S. House.
Paxton’s campaign believes that in a national environment that favors Democrats, his bona fides with the Trump-aligned base means he will be able to turn out the low-propensity voters who powered Trump’s victory in 2024 but are less likely to vote when the president isn’t on the ballot.
The UH poll found that likely runoff voters are evenly divided, at 43% for both Cornyn and Paxton, in assessing who would be a stronger candidate against Talarico.
Beyond the Senate race, Republican voters are also picking their nominee for attorney general and railroad commissioner in the May 26 runoff.
State Sen. Mayes Middleton is leading U.S. Rep. Chip Roy by nine points among likely voters in the race to succeed Paxton as the GOP’s attorney general nominee, the Hobby School survey found.
Middleton, a Galveston lawmaker and oil and gas businessman, has invested more than $15 million of his own money into the race, pushing his name and conservative record to voters via television, radio and social media ads.
Roy is an Austin-based conservative U.S. House member best known for clashing with GOP leadership, including the president at times, in the name of spirited stands for spending cuts and federalism. While he entered the race with the highest name recognition, Roy came second in the March 3 primary. He has recently launched a spate of television ads scrutinizing Middleton’s limited legal experience.
Middleton picked up a chunk of support from supporters of Aaron Reitz, the former Justice Department lawyer and Paxton deputy who finished fourth in the primary. More than half of Reitz voters plan to vote for Middleton, whom Reitz has endorsed, while just 38% plan to vote for Roy. Supporters of state Sen. Joan Huffman, R-Houston, who came third, are split between the two candidates.
For the Texas Railroad Commission, the agency that regulates oil and gas in Texas, incumbent Jim Wright is leading conservative firebrand Bo French by seven points, according to the UH poll. But more than a third of voters are unsure who they will vote for.
Wright, president of an oilfield waste services company, has been on the three-member commission since 2021 and has been endorsed by Gov. Greg Abbott, among others. His campaign is focused on cutting red tape, including what he calls “unnecessary federal delays” for energy infrastructure.
French is an energy investor who has a family oil business in Midland, and recently served as chair of the Tarrant County Republican Party. French has come under fire for his incendiary stances, including a social media post where he asked his followers whether Jews or Muslims were a bigger threat to the country and comments he made about wanting to deport close to a third of the country. He has focused his campaign on culture war issues, like the “Islamic invasion” of Texas and diversity, equity and inclusion, vowing to return the commission to “merit-based decision-making” in awarding contracts.