New poll shows where voters stand ahead of Texas Senate primaries

HOUSTON — A new survey from the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University sheds light on where Texas voters stand as the 2026 U.S. Senate primaries approach. The poll, conducted in early August, provides a snapshot of the state’s political landscape, revealing notable divides and surprising strengths for several candidates in both the Republican and Democratic contests.

In the Republican primary, Attorney General Ken Paxton holds a narrow lead over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn. When voters were asked to choose between just those two candidates, Paxton drew 44% support, Cornyn landed at 39%, and 17% said they were unsure. The margin remains slim in multi-candidate races, with Paxton maintaining a slight edge, whether Rep. Wesley Hunt or Rep. Ronny Jackson is added to the mix. Voters, however, report significantly greater familiarity with Paxton and Cornyn compared to Hunt and Jackson. Nearly everyone surveyed had formed an opinion about the high-profile candidates, but only about two-thirds could say the same about the lesser-known congressmen.

When it comes to appeal, more than 40% of likely Republican voters said they’d be more inclined to support a candidate endorsed by President Donald Trump, while 17% said a Trump nod actually makes them less likely to vote for that person. About one-third of primary voters said they would “never” vote for either Paxton or Cornyn, highlighting deep divisions within the party.

Subgroup breakdowns offer more detail: Paxton enjoys notable leads among born-again Protestants and voters lacking a four-year college degree, while Cornyn is stronger with Independents and non-born-again Protestants. Favorability rankings put Trump, Gov. Greg Abbott, and Sen. Ted Cruz at the top with about three-quarters of Republican voters viewing them positively, ahead of Paxton and Cornyn.

On the Democratic side, former Rep. Beto O’Rourke stands out with a sizable advantage. He leads former Rep. Colin Allred 58% to 38% in a head-to-head matchup, with just 4% undecided. O’Rourke is especially popular among women and Latino voters, holding a 27-point edge with the former and 43 points with the latter. While nearly all Democratic voters know enough to have an opinion about O’Rourke or Allred, fewer are familiar with Rep. Joaquin Castro or State Rep. James Talarico. Favorability rates for all main Democratic figures are high, but more voters said they’d “definitely” vote for O’Rourke compared to his rivals, and Democratic voters are less likely to rule out supporting any candidate than their Republican counterparts.

The report, rooted in surveys of 1,500 likely Republican and 1,500 likely Democratic voters, paints a picture of primaries that could hinge on identity, ideology, and region. While Paxton and O’Rourke appear to hold early leads, deep pockets of support and resistance exist for every major contender, hinting at a dynamic—and unpredictable—campaign season ahead.

In a two-way GOP primary (Ken Paxton vs. John Cornyn):

• Paxton: 44%
• Cornyn: 39%
• Unsure: 17%

In a three-way GOP primary (Paxton vs. Cornyn vs. Wesley Hunt):

• Paxton: 35%
• Cornyn: 30%
• Hunt: 22%
• Unsure: 13%

In a three-way GOP primary (Paxton vs. Cornyn vs. Ronny Jackson):

• Paxton: 38%
• Cornyn: 33%
• Jackson: 15%
• Unsure: 14%

Other two-way matchups show Paxton ahead of Jackson (44%-33%) and Hunt (43%-36%), while Cornyn leads both Jackson (43%-35%) and Hunt (42%-36%).

• 98% of likely Republican primary voters know enough about Paxton to have an opinion; 97% for Cornyn.
• Only 66% know enough about Hunt; 59% for Jackson.

Favorable/unfavorable ratings:

• Paxton: 58% favorable, 39% unfavorable
• Cornyn: 50% favorable, 45% unfavorable
• Hunt: 47% favorable, 8% unfavorable
• Jackson: 37% favorable, 12% unfavorable

Definitely would consider voting for:

• Paxton: 45%
• Cornyn: 35%
• Hunt: 31%
• Jackson: 23%

• Paxton: 31%
• Cornyn: 31%
• Hunt: 9%
• Jackson: 12%

• 41% would be more likely to vote for a Trump-endorsed candidate.
• 17% would be less likely.
• 42% say endorsement has no impact.

• Born-again Protestants (+20%)
• Those without a four-year college degree (+18%)
• Houston metro area residents (+19%)
• Republican/Republican-leaning voters (+10-13%)

• Independents (+47%)
• Non-born-again Protestants (+22%)
• Metro Austin residents (+20%)
• DFW metro area residents (+7%)

Favorability among likely primary voters:

• Donald Trump: 77% favorable
• Greg Abbott: 74%
• Ted Cruz: 74%
• Elon Musk: 70%
• Dan Patrick: 63%
• Ken Paxton: 58%
• John Cornyn: 50%

In a two-way Democratic primary (Beto O’Rourke vs. Colin Allred):

• O’Rourke: 58%
• Allred: 38%
• Unsure: 4%

Allred vs. James Talarico:

• Allred: 50%
• Talarico: 43%
• Unsure: 7%

Allred vs. Joaquin Castro:

• Allred: 52%
• Castro: 41%
• Unsure: 7%

• O’Rourke and Allred are very well-known (99% and 98% know enough to have an opinion).
• Castro (87%) and Talarico (74%) are less known.

Favorable/unfavorable ratings:

• O’Rourke: 94% favorable, 5% unfavorable
• Allred: 85% favorable, 11% unfavorable
• Crockett: 83% favorable, 3% unfavorable
• Castro: 78% favorable, 3% unfavorable
• Talarico: 63% favorable, 1% unfavorable

Definitely would consider voting for:

• O’Rourke: 73%
• Allred: 65%
• Castro: 59%
• Talarico: 54%

• O’Rourke: 4%
• Allred: 7%
• Castro: 2%
• Talarico: 1%

• Women (+27%)
• Latino voters (+43%)
• Black voters (+12%)
• White voters (+9%)
• Younger voters: 18-34 (+58%), 35-44 (+29%)
• No four-year degree (+27%), with degree (+16%)
• Border counties (+43%), leads in all metros except DFW (DFW lead: +9%)

Allred advantages/subgroups:

• None in matchup with O’Rourke; leads Talarico by 13% among women and is tied among men.
• Dominant among Black voters in both Allred-Talarico (+50%) and Allred-Castro (+53%) matchups.
• Strong in DFW (home region), large leads over rivals.

• Talarico leads among 18-34s (+46% over Allred), Austinites (+38% over Allred)
• Castro leads Latino voters by +25% over Allred, and dominates San Antonio (+51% over Allred)

• Only 1-2% don’t know enough about O’Rourke or Allred to have a voting opinion; 13% for Castro and 26% for Talarico.
• Large proportion (75%) don’t know enough about lesser-known Democrat Terry Virts.

• 52% men, 48% women.
• 82% White, 13% Latino, 3% Black.
• 8% are 18-34, 25% are 35-54, 67% are 55+.
• 58% have four-year college degree.
• 41% born-again Protestants.
• 28% live in Metro DFW, 23% Houston, 9% San Antonio, 6% Austin, 34% elsewhere.

• 58% women, 41% men, 1% other gender.
• 45% White, 32% Latino, 19% Black.
• 13% are 18-34, 27% are 35-54, 60% are 55+.
• 52% have four-year college degree.
• 26% live in Metro DFW, 25% Houston, 15% Austin, 14% San Antonio, 8% border counties, 12% elsewhere.

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