AUSTIN (KXAN) – Colorado State University has released their two-week forecast for North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone activity for the middle of August, and National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration (NOAA’s) prediction for the Atlantic hurricane season remains on-track.
The season so far
There have been four named storms thus far in the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, with zero of these storms strengthening to hurricane status.
Based on tropical climatology, the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is coming up soon on Sept. 10. This is usually when water is the warmest in the Atlantic, Caribbean and The Gulf along with weaker wind shear in the Caribbean.
With areas of interest currently sitting in the Atlantic, CSU and NOAA updated their predictions for the rest of the season.
Colorado State University releases two-week outlook
In previous outlooks, CSU predicted an above-average hurricane season. Its original forecast for the season was:
- Named Storms: 16
- Hurricanes: eight
- Major (Cat 3+): three
As of Aug. 6, CSU released its two-week forecast of the season that keeps numbers favoring above-average.
There is a slight increase in CSU’s numbers, predicting that the Atlantic will remain active over the next two weeks. According to CSU, “The [Madden-Julian Oscillation] is forecast to propagate across Africa and into the Indian Ocean during the two-week period, providing large-scale conditions that typically favor Atlantic hurricane activity”.
CSU will release its next two-week forecast on Aug. 20.
NOAA updates their forecast
As of Aug. 7, NOAA continues to stick to its prediction of an above-average hurricane season.
The NOAA’s percentages are sitting at a 50% chance of above-average, 35% chance of a normal season and a 15% chance of a below normal season.
In May, NOAA released its first forecast for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season that predicted an above-average hurricane season. This prediction has stayed true, and while it still predicts the season to stay above-average, its numbers lowered ever so slightly.
Along with its updated above-average numbers, NOAA’s newest forecast includes warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures, active West African monsoon and a continuation of ENSO-Neutral conditions. ENSO-Neutral conditions refer to when ocean temperatures and atmospheric patterns are close to their average and can generally lead to near-normal or normal Atlantic hurricane activity.
Overall, the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is on track to stay above-average with both CSU and NOAA continuing to predict higher than average numbers.