TEXAS (KAMR/KCIT) – On July 4, catastrophic flash floods in Central Texas killed at least 119 people and left more than 170 missing across several counties. Amid the ongoing recovery efforts and reckoning with the factors that contributed to the disaster, some have questioned if the flooding was the result of weather modified through “cloud seeding.”
However, Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller and other officials dismissed implications that weather modification projects contributed to the flooding as conspiracy theories. The CEO of a cloud-seeding company operating in Central Texas said in public statements that the practice had nothing to do with the flooding.
Here’s a look at what “cloud seeding” is, how it works, and how much of an impact it has on the weather in Texas.
What is cloud seeding?
Cloud seeding is a type of weather modification technique that is intended to improve a cloud’s ability to produce rain or snow. It works best with clouds that already have the potential for precipitation and works to increase the amount of large raindrops they can form.
According to the Desert Research Institute, the process works by introducing particles into the atmosphere like dust or salts that water vapor can cling to as a base for precipitation, such as raindrops or snowflakes. This process can be completed by using ground-based generators or aircraft to release a compound, such as the often-used silver iodide, into the air.
As noted by the Texas Department of Licensing & Regulation, cloud seeding efforts can use aircraft to put seeding materials into clouds and turrets of growing thunderstorms in order to get storms to expand and process more water from the atmosphere. Those seeding materials can take the form of flares holding a compound like silver iodide which are then burned, mounted on the wings of an aircraft, or dropped out from the underside. Otherwise, ground operations like those run by the Desert Research Institute might burn seeding materials in order to get the compound at their cores up into the clouds or storm systems.
What does the State of Texas have to do with it?
Environmental scientist Gregg Eckhardt, via EdwardsAquifer.net, noted that cloud seeding efforts in different areas of Texas have been ongoing since the early 1890s, though the process as it is known today began with Dr. Vincent J. Schaefer in 1946 via his work to create artificial clouds in a chilled chamber. Schaefer’s experimentation led to the “cold rain” or “static method” process of cloud seeding as well as the “warm rain” process, which both focus on adding particles to the air that can offer a base for precipitation like raindrops and snowflakes to use to form.
After Schaefer’s discoveries, a range of independent researchers, businesses, and government agencies continued to develop cloud seeding as a weather modification process. In Texas, the Southwest Research Institute undertook rainmaking ventures as early as 1947, and rainmaking programs were made and otherwise funded by water management entities up through the present time.
As of 2025, there are five weather modification, or cloud seeding, programs active in Texas, including:
- West Texas Weather Modification Association (WTWMA) based in San Angelo, which has operated since 1997;
- South Texas Weather Modification Association (STWMA) based in Pleasanton, south of San Antonio, which has operated since 1997;
- Panhandle Groundwater Conservation District (PGWCD) in the Texas Panhandle, which has operated since 2000;
- Trans Pecos Weather Modification Association (TPWMA) along and west of the Pecos River, which has operated since 2003; and
- Rolling Plains Water Enhancement Project near Abilene and north and eastward toward the Red River Valley, which has operated since 2015.
The TDA previously had involvement and responsibilities regarding the state’s weather modification programs, but Miller noted that stopped in 2011. Since then, the Texas Department of Licensing and Regulation has been responsible for regulating weather modification projects and promoting their development.
How is it funded?
The TDLR noted that no state funds have been made available for the next two years for any cloud seeding operations in Texas. Rain enhancement projects currently are being funded by underground water conservation districts and other local political subdivisions, such as county commissions and aquifer authorities. PGCD said that its program is funded through the district’s regular budget, and noted that in 2021 the cost was about 3 cents per acre for the district.
Even if no state funding has been made available for programs like PGCD’s cloud seeding, the 2022 Texas State Water Plan included financial assistance through the State Water Implementation Fund for Texas. The program, as described by the Texas Water Development Board, provides loans to political subdivisions and nonprofit water supply corporations with projects included in the state water plan, including:
- Municipalities;
- Counties;
- River authorities;
- Special law districts;
- Water improvement districts;
- Water control and improvement districts;
- Irrigation districts; and
- Groundwater conservation districts.
Does it work?
That depends on who you ask.
Historically, analyses of cloud seeding operations and their effectiveness have been difficult for a number of reasons.
In order to be certain that cloud seeding made the difference in precipitation for a particular storm, for example, researchers would need to be able to compare a seeded storm in the exact same area and with the exact same weather conditions that a not-seeded storm took place. Due to the chaotic nature of weather, that’s nearly impossible and would require advanced technology that hasn’t historically been available.
Quantifiable data about the impacts of cloud seeding is a recent development; the National Science Foundation only reported the first quantifiable observations of cloud seeding for increased snowfall in 2018, and the technology that has made such reports possible has developed to that point only in the last 20 years.
TDLR said an analysis of Texas cloud seeding operations, produced at Texas Tech University in 2019, said that on average individual seeded thunderstorms lived 41% longer than untreated storms in the vicinity and covered about 44% more area. Rain output from seeded storms, on average, was 24% more than that from nearby untreated storms. The 101 single, isolated thunderstorms seeded appeared to produce around 101,000 acre-feet beyond what could have been expected without seeding, and more complex thunderstorm clusters that were seeded appeared to yield a bit over 956,600 additional acre-feet of rainwater.
According to the Texas Comptroller’s Office and the World Meteorological Organization, it is possible that cloud seeding could contribute to a 10%-30% increase in precipitation.
While concrete estimates for the impact of cloud seeding have been historically difficult to confirm, and is understood to not be dramatic, it has remained one of many water management strategies state officials and stakeholders have suggested Texas consider as part of its long-term water future.
How does cloud seeding impact flooding?
The TDLR said there is no evidence that cloud seeding causes clouds to grow substantially taller and produce unwanted effects, such as damaging winds, hail and flash floods.
“To the contrary,” said the TDLR in its weather modification summary, “The available evidence from over eight years of research in West Texas suggests cloud seeding, when done timely and accurately, contributes to more gentle, widespread, and longer-lasting rains.”
In multiple news and podcast appearances since the July 4 flooding in Central Texas, Rainmaker CEO Augustus Doricko has insisted cloud seeding operations had no impact on the floods.
Doricko said in an X thread regarding the flooding that Rainmaker did not operate in the affected area on July 3-4 or contribute to the floods.
“The last seeding mission prior to the July 4th event was during the early afternoon of July 2nd, when a brief cloud seeding mission was flown over the eastern portions of south-central Texas, and two clouds were seeded. These clouds persisted for about two hours after seeding before dissipating between 3:00 p.m. and 4:00 p.m. CDT. Natural clouds typically have lifespans of 30 minutes to a few hours at most, with even the most persistent storm systems rarely maintaining the same cloud structure for more than 12-18 hours. The clouds that were seeded on July 2nd dissipated over 24 hours prior to the developing storm complex that would produce the flooding rainfall.
“A senior meteorologist observed an unusually high moisture content prior to the event’s arrival, using NWS sounding data. It was at this point that our meteorologists determined that we would suspend future operations indefinitely. As you can see, we suspended operations on July 2nd, a day before the NWS issued any flood warning.”
Doricko noted Rainmaker suspended operations in accordance with the TDLR suspension criteria, which requires a stop to cloud seeding operations in several circumstances related to developing storms and weather conditions with the potential to produce high amounts of rainfall.
Even then, Doricko commented on the ‘War Room’ podcast that Rainmaker’s biggest cloud-seeding missions to date have only produced an estimated 10 million gallons of precipitation, while the tropical storm that caused the flash flooding in Central Texas dumped “about 4 trillion over the course of two days.”
The difference between the potential impact of cloud seeding versus the amount of water in such a tropical storm “is incomparable,” according to Doricko.
Why was the flooding in Central Texas so bad?
As noted in previous reports, Central Texas and the Texas Hill Country are known for shallow rivers, numerous hills and rugged valleys with major flood potential, to the point the geography of the south-central Texas regions along the Guadalupe River have been dubbed “Flash Flood Alley.”
Geographical characteristics paired with the impact of Trapical Storm Barry in late June and slow-moving storms that merged in the region after festering throughout July 3, contributing to the development of several storms and a burst of intense rainfall over the Guadalupe River.
Meanwhile, Central Texas has been among the regions of the state with the most severe drought conditions this year. Soil moisture levels had been low and the soil content of the region makes it more difficult for the ground to soak in extreme levels of moisture at once, leading to rain becoming runoff and flash floodwaters in the oversaturated conditions.
Much of the flooding also occurred in the middle of the night, while many people were asleep while the situation developed and major warnings and alerts were issued.
All of those factors combined, as well as others, contributed to the severity of the flooding and its impacts throughout Central Texas during the July 4 weekend.